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Survey shows higher consumer confidence in Sept

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence index has increased by 1.6 points to 135.3 points in September despite cautious consumer sentiment in certain fields in the month.

HCMC - The ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence index has increased by 1.6 points to 135.3 points in September despite cautious consumer sentiment in certain fields in the month.
The index is 0.3 point higher than a year ago, driven by increased optimism about the country’s overall economic prospects in the next year and over the next five years.
However, the bank’s latest survey showed that in terms of personal finances, 29% (down two percentage points from August) of Vietnamese respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than the same period last year, the lowest value recorded for the indicator since November 2014. In contrast, 22% (unchanged) said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.


Customers scrutinize products at a store in HCMC. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence index has increased by 1.6 points to 135.3 points in September - PHOTO: THANH HOA


Some 55% (down three percentage points from August) of respondents expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, the lowest level recorded for the indicator since January 2015. However, only 6% (unchanged) expect their families to be ‘worse off’ financially.
In addition, 50% (up four percentage points from August) of respondents expect Vietnam to have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, in contrast to a 12% (unchanged) who expect ‘bad times’ financially.
Over the next five years, 61% (up six percentage points from August) of respondents expect the country to have ‘good times’ economically compared to only 7% (unchanged) who expect Vietnam to have ‘bad times’ economically.
Finally, 41% (up one percentage point from August) of respondents said ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items compared to 12% (down two percentage points) who said ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.
Glenn Maguire, ANZ chief economist for South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, said there is a very clear split between short term personal financial sentiment and the medium to longer term outlook for the economy.
It is notable that fewer households currently feel better off compared to a year ago, and expect to be better off in one year from now. However, at the same time that confidence in the personal financial assessment has been waning, confidence in the nation’s medium to longer term economic outlook has picked up rather strongly, he said in a report released on September 23.
The short-term assessment on personal finances may have been eroded by policy decisions to weaken the dong and widen its trading band in August, measures which will make imports more expensive for the average Vietnamese household. However, over the medium-term this is a prudent policy choice that will retain Vietnam’s export competitiveness and ensure continued insulation from the regional trade recession.
“We think a sharp erosion in confidence in Vietnam is highly unlikely. Our expectation of resilience stems from Vietnamese trade performance in the coming months, thanks to strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in recent years,” the expert added.

Dinh Duy

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